See how often your commune will be hit by severe floods, if the world does not meet climate goals.

Uncontrollable masses of water, flooded summer homes, damaged marinas, and damaged roads.

The consequences were significant for both people, materials, and nature, as parts of Denmark were hit by a storm surge in October 2023. A phenomenon described as a 100-year event – something that, on average, occurs only once every hundred years.

However, the interval can change significantly if the world does not succeed in reaching the Paris Agreement's climate goals and limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the year 2100.

This is shown by data that DMI's National Center for Climate Research has produced for DR, and which for the first time ever shows what the Paris Agreement's goals precisely mean for Denmark's climate.

- We can expect a storm surge like in October 2023 every other year in a world that is four degrees warmer. And regardless of the temperature increase, it will be a challenge we will have to live with for many years in the future, says Mark Payne, who is a climate researcher at DMI.

A temperature increase of four degrees is a scenario we would look at if the world had no climate policy. Right now, the world is heading towards a temperature increase of between 2.5 and 2.8 degrees with the climate commitments and plans that countries have given.

Right now, the world is heading towards a temperature increase of 2.5 degrees based on the commitments and climate plans that countries have given. If it ends up that way, powerful storm surges like the one in 2023 will occur approximately every third year in Denmark over a period of 50 years.

However, if the world manages to achieve the goal of a 1.5-degree temperature increase, the number of powerful storm surges will be limited to occurring every sixth year in Denmark. If the world leaders do not keep their current commitments, and temperatures continue to rise as they did before the international climate agreement in 2015 - the Paris Agreement - Denmark could be hit by 100-year storm surges more than every other year at the end of this century.

The many storm surges will lead to severe flooding and damage.

Mark Payne points to a particularly large area of Denmark where storm surges will occur more frequently than they do now.

- A storm surge like the one we know today will occur more frequently in Eastern Denmark than along the west coast. People on the west coast are more accustomed to dealing with a storm surge, as they have thousands of years of experience with it. That is not the case to the same extent in Eastern Denmark, says Mark Payne.

He explains that Eastern Denmark covers the Kattegat coast, where cities such as Frederikshavn, Aarhus, Grenaa, Ebeltoft, and Læsø are located, as well as the western Baltic Sea, which includes the southern Funen archipelago, Langeland, Svendborg, Sønderborg, Als, Lolland-Falster, and Bornholm.

Where is your area exposed to storm surges if the climate goals are not met? Click around on the map below and see how the projections look for your municipality in the case of the three different temperature increases.

Mark Payne emphasizes that all areas in Denmark will experience more frequent storm surges.

- Bornholm has the largest changes, but it is a general trend that coastal municipalities in Denmark will experience more storm surges. All municipalities that are along the Køge Bay are clearly at the top of the scale, along with the municipalities around the Limfjord, he says.

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Storm surge is the most important consequence of climate change

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According to Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, who is a professor of climate physics and has worked on climate records, storm surges are precisely a concrete result of climate change for the Danes.

- When we live in Denmark, storm surge is the most important thing we can see in relation to climate change, and that is because the global water level rises and rises, says Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen and explains that the higher water level affects coastal areas.

According to both experts, Denmark can deal with storm surges through various measures such as, for example, protection with dikes or deliberate retreat. That is, in very exposed areas, the choice is made not to protect, but to accept that areas remain flooded. The solution depends very much on the local conditions, underlines Mark Payne, but one thing is certain.

- It is changes we will have to learn to live with, he says.

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