Denmark in 2096 offers pandering – but they are not united on the solution

If we look 71 years ahead - to 2096 - the Danish population could look quite different than it does today.

According to a new population forecast, which the University of Southern Denmark has prepared for Politiken (https://politiken.dk/danmark/art10414206/I-2096-kan-flertallet-i-Danmark-v%C3%A6re-indvandrere-eller-efterkommere), the percentage of non-ethnic Danes will be greater than the percentage of ethnic Danes in 2096.

If, therefore, we do not have more children than we do today, and we have the same degree of immigration and foreign labor.

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Facts about the population forecast

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Danish women, on average, have 1.466 children. It requires 2.1 children per woman to reproduce the population. This is stated by Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen, who is a professor of epidemiology and demography at the Institute for Healthcare Research at the University of Southern Denmark and the man behind the new forecast, in P1 Morgen (https://www.dr.dk/lyd/p1/p1-morgen/p1-morgen-2025/tirsdag-10-jun-2025-11802533242).

The net immigration - that is, the number of people who come to Denmark, minus the number of people who leave Denmark - has been 29,200 over the past five years, according to Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen.

And this sets off alarm bells in the Danish People's Party, according to the party's immigration spokesperson, Mikkel Bjørn. For according to him, the percentage of non-ethnic Danes should never exceed the percentage of ethnic Danes at home.

- It is an alarming development and fundamentally speaking a catastrophe, if Danes become a minority in their own country. I see this fundamentally as completely unacceptable, he says in P1 Morgen (https://www.dr.dk/lyd/p1/p1-morgen/p1-morgen-2025/tirsdag-10-jun-2025-11802533242).

On the other hand, the new population forecast does not create concern among the governing party Moderates, according to the party's immigration spokesperson, Mohammad Rona.

- Many of those who come here to Denmark are people from Poland, Romania, Ukraine and so on - people, who we, in essence, also share values with, he says in P1 Morgen (https://www.dr.dk/lyd/p1/p1-morgen/p1-morgen-2025/tirsdag-10-jun-2025-11802533242).

Danish People's Party immigration spokesperson, Mikkel Bjørn, calls the new population forecast from SDU "alarming". (Photo: Liselotte Sabroe/Ritzau Scanpix). (Photo: © Liselotte Sabroe, Ritzau Scanpix)

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More or less foreign labor?

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The Danish People's Party has no objection to, for example, people from Poland or Ukraine coming here to work. On the other hand, the party has a problem with more foreign labor, if it comes from Muslim countries.

- The decisive factor is what culture will come to define Denmark in the future. Will the problems we already have today with parallel societies, ghettoization, Islamic demands and social control grow or not?

- It is a choice we ourselves take, whether we want to supplement our population deficit with non-Western immigrants from countries we have poor experiences with, he says and points out that many of the thousands who are employed in administering the public sector could instead get jobs where there is a shortage of labor.

According to Moderates, this is not a viable option.

- We are deeply dependent on foreign workers, because otherwise we cannot keep things running, if we want to maintain the prosperity and welfare we have in Denmark today.

- We need people from abroad to help us with the tasks that are there, says Mohammad Rona, who at the same time says that there is a "pain threshold" for how many come here.

Moderates immigration spokesperson, Mohammad Rona, is not concerned about the new population forecast. (Photo: © Ida Marie Odgaard, Ritzau Scanpix)

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Should it be more attractive to have children

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The Danish People's Party and Moderates are in agreement about the fact that there are too few children being born in Denmark today.

And therefore, there is a need for political measures that make it more attractive to have more children, according to Mikkel Bjørn.

- It is a development we see across many European countries. But there are countries that have managed to reverse the development.

- For example, Hungary has, through some positive incentives in relation to tax benefits and so on, by establishing families, significantly reduced the population growth that was expected in the future, he says.

Changing tax conditions can be a way to go, says Mohammad Rona.

- One can turn many different levers. It is also why we have set aside funds in the research reserve to be able to investigate how and in what way it here hangs together.

- We simply have too little knowledge about it, and the knowledge we need to have broadly disseminated, so we can pull on some levers to make it more attractive to have more children in the future, he says.

You can hear Dansk Folkeparti's Mikkel Bjørn and Moderates Mohammad Rona debate the population in Denmark anno 2096 in today's edition of P1 Morgen (https://www.dr.dk/lyd/p1/p1-morgen/p1-morgen-2025/tirsdag-10-jun-2025-11802533242) :

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