The EU election analysis was a new breath for the green agenda. However, the climate will hardly be forgotten in the new parliament.

For five years ago, there was wild jubilation among the green group in the EU Parliament, as they received a significant boost from voters.

In particular, in two countries often described as the engine of the EU project, the greens made significant gains: France and Germany.

Since then, EU has significantly increased its climate ambitions.

The EU has passed a climate law with a goal of climate neutrality by 2050, and the reduction target for 2030 was raised. Simultaneously, climate targets were expanded to shipping, aviation within the EU, road transport, and heating of our homes.

It is one of the most comprehensive green reforms seen on a global scale.

In the recently held EU election, it went opposite for the green group. They lost all the progress they had made five years ago. The green group is now back at the level they had before the 2019 election.

It is possible that SF, which sits in the green group, had a historic good election in Denmark. But the three SF politicians elected face a tough task in translating that into green influence.

Despite the fact that parties behind EU's large climate package still have a majority, the green wave is expected to face some resistance in certain areas.

It is essential to distinguish between which green initiatives will face resistance.

Demonstrators lit a fire in front of the EU Parliament in Brussels on February 26, and farmers' demonstrations continued all the way to the election. (Photo: © Harry Nakos, Associated Press)

However, the transformation of the energy sector is expected to continue at full speed. It is driven by cheap renewable energy and a break from Russian gas dependence.

On the other hand, agriculture may face less pressure after the election.

The powerful EPP group, which is Christian democratic, has leaned in the same direction and can continue with it through the right-wing swing at this election.

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Climate deniers with little influence

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Sunday's EU election was not a landslide victory for traditional climate deniers, and those who were elected will remain marginalized.

Many eyes were on Germany, EU's largest country, where Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) was threatening climate policies. The party advanced, but not to the extent that some pre-election polls had suggested.

At the same time, the Identitarian and Democracy group, which AfD was previously a part of and which wants to slow down the transition, is expected to lose influence. This is despite the fact that one of the two female election winners – or election queens – is Marine Le Pen from the National Rally, who sits in this group.

Here is a banner against wind turbines with the argument of nature protection with the AfD logo in the corner. The photo is from 2022. (Photo: © Martin Schutt, Martin Schutt/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images)

However, another right-wing group may increase its influence. It is the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which is right-nationalist in orientation.

Here sits the other of the two female election winners, the Italian government leader Giorgia Meloni from the Fratelli d'Italia.

This group can become a decisive power broker because the powerful EPP group can swing towards them.

The ECR group has declared in a manifesto (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GWy-8garJEV8pSRpSZBOlOo3wxBPp06p/view) that they want a more 'balanced' climate policy with a focus on protecting 'ordinary citizens' and businesses from 'over-ideological climate policy'.

The ECR group sees itself as the protector of agriculture. Here is a sheep being treated by a vet in France. (Photo: © Arnaud Finistre, Ritzau Scanpix)

But it is only parts of climate policy that Giorgia Meloni and the rest of the ECR group oppose. Concretely, they will keep cars with fossil fuel engines in transportation, based on the belief that green fuels can play a role.

But the political battle is, after all, a thing of the past. The new EU Parliament election was not the major breakthrough for the green transition that some had feared.

If we look at the other side of the English Channel, there has been a development that green organizations have feared could spread.

Here, the conservative British government has postponed climate policies, which they had previously implemented. This is devastating for the transition, according to criticism from large parts of the business community, as it shakes the foundation under green business investments.

The Swedish company Northvolt is building a large battery factory in Ditmarsken just a few kilometers south of the Danish border. Photo taken in April of the year. (Photo: © Christian Charisius, Christian Charisius/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images)

Chris Skidmore, a former conservative minister, has criticized his old party, the Conservatives, over Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2024-05-15/zero-why-the-uk-s-conservatives-gave-up-on-climate-podcast) for being carried away by a by-election in a London suburb, where a conservative politician seemed to do well by campaigning for car ownership. The local result was then used to argue that a national campaign against green policies would be popular, Skidmore says. It was a miscalculation, he believes.

There is no indication that the EU election will be translated into a reversal of central climate policies, as we have seen in the UK.

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2040 goal and agriculture

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The role of agriculture will become a central issue in the coming years.

For the first time, EU's agricultural support must be reformed, and EU's climate council recommends removing support for climate-damaging animal production.

Furthermore, there should be a climate goal for 2040.

The EU Commission has already proposed an ambition of reducing emissions by 90% in 2040. This was, in fact, after pressure from the EU Parliament that forced the Commission to set the ambition level there.

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> The growth story for agriculture can be met with resistance.

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If EU politicians want to keep the goal of climate neutrality by 2050, which all the power-seeking groups support, they are also obligated to raise the ambitions for 2040.

The question is, which sectors will contribute to the climate goals, and how.

The argument from the powerful parties revolves around job creation, security, and competitiveness. Production of wind turbines, electric cars, and batteries should not only take place in China and the US.

It is the social democratic group S&D, the liberal-dominated middle group Renew, and the Christian conservative group EPP where this argument prevails.

When it comes to agriculture, the growth story can be met with resistance.

For months, farmers have protested in Brussels, where the EU Parliament is located.

The conservative EPP group has stated (https://www.eppgroup.eu/newsroom/epp-group-position-paper-on-a-european-farmers-deal-the-epp-vision-for-agriculture-in-europe) that they are putting their feet down when it comes to strict requirements for agriculture. It is on this issue that the conservative EPP can lean towards the ECR group's declaration of protecting agriculture.

A tractor drives through the streets of Brussels as part of an agricultural protest on June 4, 2024. (Photo: © Olivier Hoslet, Ritzau Scanpix)

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Biodiversity and environment may face challenges

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If you ask two Danish think tanks, climate and energy policy will survive with the new EU Parliament, as they can be linked to security, economy, and competitiveness.

But when it comes to environmental and biodiversity policy, the brakes may be applied.

It is more difficult for green organizations to convince liberal parties that the protection of biodiversity creates jobs, says Nicolai Bech Kofoed, program director at Concito. That story will be met with resistance from agriculture. He gives the nature restoration directive as an example.

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> It is difficult to get out of agriculture if climate emissions need to be reduced by 90% in 2040.

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It is difficult to get out of agriculture if climate emissions need to be reduced by 90% in 2040. Today, agriculture accounts for 10% of climate emissions, and that share will increase significantly.

Ditte Brasso Sørensen, analysis chief at Europa, evaluates that EU can bind itself to a goal in the vicinity of 90% in 2040. But if the target includes specific requirements for agriculture, it may become challenging, she evaluates.

If we take a helicopter tour, Sunday's election was not the major breakthrough for the green transition that some had feared.

If we look at the other side of the English Channel, there has been a development that green organizations have feared could spread.

Here, the conservative British government has postponed climate policies, which they had previously implemented. This is devastating for the transition, according to criticism from large parts of the business community, as it shakes the foundation under green business investments.

Projects like this use EU politicians from both the right and left to argue for climate goals. The Swedish company Northvolt is building a large battery factory in Ditmarsken just a few kilometers south of the Danish border. Photo taken in April of the year. (Photo: © Christian Charisius, Christian Charisius/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images)

Chris Skidmore, a former conservative minister, has criticized his old party, the Conservatives, over Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2024-05-15/zero-why-the-uk-s-conservatives-gave-up-on-climate-podcast) for being carried away by a by-election in a London suburb, where a conservative politician seemed to do well by campaigning for car ownership. The local result was then used to argue that a national campaign against green policies would be popular, Skidmore says. It was a miscalculation, he believes.

There is no indication that the EU election will be translated into a reversal of central climate policies, as we have seen in the UK.

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