Power's Morning Brief: Messerschmidt went to bed with the enemy: Here is the winner and loser of the tax agreement

While all eyes were on the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy's, visit to Denmark, the government's tax negotiations took a completely unexpected turn.

Yes, it was a veritable plot twist in the negotiations, and if they were a crime novel, our protagonist had now ended up in bed with the enemy.

For, most surprisingly – in fact, even for the government itself – according to our information, it has ended up making a tax agreement with the Danish People's Party.

The Danish People's Party was initially used as a kind of decoy in the negotiations to lure the blue parties to the table. But the decoy ended up taking the cake itself.

This leaves the four blue parties standing on the platform – but who actually gets the most out of the agreement? We take a closer look at this in *Magtens Morgenbrief* on the day where the expectation is that the government and the Danish People's Party will present a tax agreement and an agreement to make petrol and diesel cheaper.

At the top of the podium stands the government. According to Thomas Juul-Dam and Jacob Bruun, our two colleagues on the podcast Magten, both of whom have previously advised a prime minister, they get the most out of the agreement.

This is mainly because they made it with the Danish People's Party.

- The government has lured the Danish People's Party into a trap, says Thomas Juul-Dam, a former advisor to Helle Thorning-Schmidt (S).

The Danish People's Party entered negotiations with Tax Minister Jakob Engel-Schmidt (M) with a demand that petrol and diesel should become at least two kroner cheaper for a year, and according to DR News' information, this is part of the agreement expected to be presented later on Thursday.

The Danish People's Party has long held a strong position on this very agenda, concerning cheaper petrol and diesel, and it has put pressure on, especially, the Social Democrats.

On top of that, the government now gets to wrap DF chairman Morten Messerschmidt (DF) in responsibility, because it will now be harder for him to stand on the sidelines and puff himself up.

- So Morten Messerschmidt can maybe howl and scream, but he himself was part of making that agreement, says Thomas Juul-Dam.

Jacob Bruun, a former advisor to Lars Løkke Rasmussen, agrees and is also willing to award the big gold medal to the government.

- It can get its entire tax policy through, and what it has to give up is, after all, quite manageable, says Jacob Bruun.

And hey, you might be thinking, how can it be a victory for the "greenest government ever" to lower the tax on petrol and diesel? The government has solved this by also creating a green package that, among other things, cancels the planned increase in the tax on electric cars – that part already came out on Wednesday.

The leader of the Danish People's Party, Morten Messerschmidt (DF), has gone solo and made a tax agreement with the government, where the tax on petrol and diesel is temporarily reduced. (Photo: © Liselotte Sabroe, Ritzau Scanpix)

But where does this leave the Danish People's Party? Well, the two former advisors disagree on that.

Because even though the government gets the most out of the agreement, according to Jacob Bruun, he can also see the point for the Danish People's Party and Morten Messerschmidt in joining the agreement.

- The Danish People's Party gets its primary core issue through on petrol and diesel, and in the long run, they position themselves as a blue party that can take responsibility, says Jacob Bruun.

Thomas Juul-Dam, on the other hand, believes it is far too risky for Messerschmidt to go to bed with the enemy. And as is well known, the Social Democrats and the Danish People's Party are two main enemies in politics, because they can both draw voters across the center.

- I would have chosen to stand outside and criticize the government and the tax agreement, and held on to the core issues where there is an open flank, especially on the Social Democrats, says Thomas Juul-Dam with his usual sense of cynicism.

- I'm not sure this is to DF's advantage.

Interesting to see who will be right…

Venstre chairman Troels Lund Poulsen returns empty-handed from tax negotiations with the government. (Photo: © Liselotte Sabroe, Ritzau Scanpix)

There is, however, complete agreement on who returns empty-handed, without a medal or a diligence prize. All the blue parties – except DF – come out as the big losers, according to the two former advisors.

- The blue parties have been hit over the head, says Jacob Bruun.

- They are at least left humiliated, and they will end up looking extremely foolish, says Thomas Juul-Dam.

Remember, it was Venstre, Liberal Alliance, the Conservatives, and the Denmark Democrats who, before the negotiations, insisted on going in and out of the door to the tax negotiations together as the four musketeers – and that the Danish People's Party was not part of their party.

And that is now backfiring massively, especially for Venstre's chairman, Troels Lund Poulsen, who this weekend will have to face his party base, after a time of intense drama in Venstre.

Venstre has always been a party that works to gain influence – especially on economic policy. And without a tax agreement in the bag, an already troublesome national meeting becomes even more troublesome, Jacob Bruun believes.

- Now Venstre is being worked out of the offices by Anders Vistisen (DF's tax spokesperson) and Morten Messerschmidt. I don't think this does any good for the blue bloc as a collective, he says.

- The blue parties should have been tougher on the government, and it is enormously damaging for Venstre that they don't have better control of the blue bloc, and that the Danish People's Party then overtakes them on the inside, says Thomas Juul-Dam.

Venstre's chairman, Troels Lund Poulsen, will this weekend meet his party base at Venstre's national meeting after some turbulent months. (Photo: © Robert Wengler, Ritzau Scanpix)

Venstre's chairman, Troels Lund Poulsen (V), will need all the help he can get when he speaks to his party base this weekend. You might remember what was written on his prompters at the national meeting last year: smile, stand still, look like a winner.

And Thomas Juul-Dam is certainly not too refined to send some inspiration his way and offer a suggestion for what could be on the Venstre chairman's prompters this weekend.

- Smile, stand still, and look like someone who is alive, says Thomas Juul-Dam, referring to the fact that Venstre is, to put it mildly, gasping for air in the polls.

What exciting days lie ahead in Danish politics…

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