Cordsen: The government has a secret deadline.

There is much at stake when the government, with Green Party Minister Jeppe Bruus (S) leading the way, sits down for the decisive final round of negotiations on Thursday.

The main opposition parties are Conservatives, SF, and Radicals, who have chosen to collaborate in the negotiations. At least in the part that deals with agriculture's nitrogen emissions, which is the most contentious issue in the negotiations.

This is due primarily to the fact that the government has decided to include the agricultural agreement from 2021 in the negotiations. In the hope of achieving a comprehensive Danish agriculture agreement for the coming years, which includes the Green Party's climate levy on agriculture and the allocation of agricultural land for forests and nature, as well as the specific requirements of the agricultural agreement regarding how much agriculture must reduce its nitrogen emissions.

The Green Party agreement is described by the parties as a "molecule-weighted" agreement. Politicians cannot tamper with it without the whole thing collapsing.

However, the agricultural agreement means that the nitrogen emission reduction targets are a political decision, and SF, K, and R are in agreement that the government's proposal is insufficient. Out of three expert group models, the government has chosen the one with the lowest reduction requirement in tons of nitrogen. This is referred to as model three.

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Three proposals for reductions

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The Ministry of Finance has prepared a report outlining three scenarios for reducing nitrogen.

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The first scenario suggests that agriculture should reduce nitrogen emissions by 14,100 tons per year.

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The second scenario suggests a reduction of 13,600 tons of nitrogen per year.

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The third proposal suggests a reduction of 12,900 tons less nitrogen per year.

The latest decision on nitrogen reduction comes from the agricultural agreement from 2021. It states:

'The parties to the agreement are committed to ensuring the implementation of the water framework directive, which involves a reduction in nitrogen emissions to the environment by 13,100 tons with current estimates.'

It was decided in the agricultural agreement from 2021 that a 'second opinion' on the nitrogen input would be prepared. This is the report that is now causing controversy.

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Holding it all together

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The Danish Nature Protection Association is concerned that there is a lack of distinction between the Green Party, which the organization is targeting, and the unambitious nitrogen reduction targets for agriculture, which the organization will not accept.

On the other hand, the Agriculture and Food Council is putting pressure on the government to tighten the nitrogen reduction targets, as the organization includes model three as a prerequisite for the tripartite agreement. Even though it is not part of the agreement.

The Nature Protection Association and the agricultural organization were the two most important parties in the tripartite agreement. Therefore, it is crucial for the government to keep them on board. In the final stages, the government does not only meet with the parties but also with them.

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Crisis of confidence on multiple fronts

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The negotiations are also marked by a serious confidence crisis. On multiple fronts.

When it comes to climate policy, the opposition simply does not trust the government. This complicates the negotiations, as the whole thing is extremely technical, and the parties are reluctant to trust the figures and calculations they receive from the ministers.

In addition, there is a fundamental mistrust of agriculture from several parties after years of voluntary agreements on a stronger climate policy, which have not led to the expected results. Therefore, the parties have a hard time trusting the goodwill that agriculture believes the tripartite agreement represents.

At the moment, it all looks rather chaotic. But under the drama, all parties – the government, the opposition parties, and the tripartite partners – have a strong interest in achieving a political agreement that can make the Green Party a reality.

And when the interest is strong enough, a political rule of thumb suggests that it usually works out in the end.

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