Rain within the next two weeks is decisive: 'It is a reasonable slow-moving catastrophe'

Despite the sun, warmth, and a clear sky making many of us cheer, the weather forecast is causing concern among farmers across the country.

For crops on the fields are lacking water. Therefore, worried expressions are spreading among farmers throughout the country at the sight of forecasts that promise more sun, but not a drop of rain.

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> It is clearly noticeable that the drought is affecting areas where the irrigation machine does not reach the corners – it is already starting to go into hibernation.

> Claus Fink Jørgensen, farmer, Bjerndrup

If the situation continues as it is this month, it looks really bad, according to several agricultural associations.

Among them is Vkst, which advises farmers on Zealand, Lolland, Falster, and Møn, where the drought is particularly severe at the moment.

- If we don't get any water in the near future, it could cost the yield, says the head of the Plant Breeding department at Vkst, Anders Wilken.

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It has never been so dry so early

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DMI's nationwide drought index was at 8.4 out of 10 on the scale on Tuesday, and thus the drought is much more widespread than the level for the past twenty years.

So far, we have only received five millimeters of rain in May compared to the 47 millimeters that May typically brings in this country, according to DMI.

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What does DMI’s drought index show?

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DMI’s drought index shows how dry it is in the upper layer of the soil in Denmark.

The scale goes from 0 to 10:

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0 means that the soil is completely saturated – there is approximately 100 mm of water available.

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10 means that the soil is completely dry and lacks the 100 mm of water.

An index of 7.1 means that the soil lacks 71 mm of water in the upper layers.

Source: DMI

This has also led Claus Fink Jørgensen, who runs a farm near Bjerndrup in Southern Jutland and is also a member of the agricultural association Spiras, to turn on the big water taps.

- We started watering already in April, something we have never done before. And it is clearly noticeable that the drought is affecting areas where the irrigation machine does not reach the corners – it is already starting to go into hibernation.

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> When the yield goes down, so do the prices go up.

> Carl-Otto Ottosen, professor of plant physiology at the Institute of Food,

> Aarhus University.

It is especially the grass and turnips that are causing concern. Claus Fink Jørgensen needs them to feed his 150 dairy cows. But if the drought continues, he will have to apply for permission to water even more – and that is not guaranteed, he says.

- It's going to wither, and I might only get half the yield if I'm lucky. Then I'll have to go out and buy feed or slaughter cows. And that's who I live off of.

Claus Fink Jørgensen has 150 dairy cows on his farm in Bjerndrup, Southern Jutland. The cows need corn, grass, and corn from Claus Fink Jørgensen's fields. With the dry weather, he fears that the fields will dry out before it rains again. (Photo: © Niklas Møller Jørgensen, DR)

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Dependent on water within a few weeks

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It is especially the yellow rapeseed, peas, and oats that are drying out particularly badly in the heat right now.

This is what Carl-Otto Ottosen, professor of plant physiology at the Institute of Food at Aarhus University, says.

- For all the blooming crops, it is very critical. If they get too much drought, the seeds will mature poorly, and sometimes the seeds will fall off – and then the yield will decrease.

Read also: Drought strikes: No rain in forecasts for the coming weeks ( https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/weather/drought-strikes-no-rain-in-forecasts-for-the-coming-weeks )

If the weather forecast holds, and the sun continues to shine from a clear sky for the next two weeks, it looks really bad for the most drought-stricken plants, says the professor.

- Corn and wheat – that is, our normal basic food crops can manage for a while longer. But rapeseed and legumes – it will go terribly wrong and give a very small yield. Certainly already now. It is a slow-moving disaster.

What does this mean for us consumers on the long run, that crops are struggling right now?

- When the yield goes down, so do the prices go up. And prices on the world market are already under pressure due to the Ukrainian conflict, so it will mean that prices will go up on some things, says Carl-Otto Ottosen.

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