A long-term top advisor is familiar with the Social Democrats from within. Now, he explains how to understand the struggle for Copenhagen.

If Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil (S) fails to win back the mayor's office in Copenhagen, she acknowledged that it will be "almost impossible" for her party to regain power.

But what will the party do if Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil, who is the first social democrat in over 100 years, fails to secure a place among the prominent mayors?

She herself hinted at the answer recently in the DR podcast "Power" (https://www.dr.dk/lyd/p1/magten/magten-2025/bye-bye-blokpolitik-11802544010). Here, the Social Democratic candidate for the municipal election in Copenhagen, stated that she does not intend to point to anyone other than herself for the upcoming election.

If Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil cannot become mayor, Social Democracy, in other words, will sit in opposition, she said in the podcast.

And if one asks someone who knows both City Hall and Social Democracy best, the message is not particularly surprising, even though it may seem so.

"It would have surprised me very much if she had said something else," says Kasper Fogh Hansen.

Kasper Fogh Hansen has the party book in order.

He is a former special advisor for the former mayor Ritt Bjerregaard, former press chief in Copenhagen Municipality, and former special advisor for the current culture minister Joy Mogensen.

And he is currently a member of Social Democracy.

"You can't see Mette Frederiksen pointing to Pia Olsen Dyhr or Pelle Dragsted. Neither Mona Juul or Troels Lund Poulsen. It's not the role, or the place in Danish politics, that Social Democracy sees itself in," says Kasper Fogh Hansen.

In many other municipalities, Social Democracy can easily constitute itself and point to another party for the mayor's office. So why can't they do it in Copenhagen?

"Because Copenhagen politics has a perspective of national politics and a Christiansborg-logic. Mainly because the capital has a different form of visibility," he says.

Why does the mayor's office in Copenhagen mean so much for Social Democracy?

"Social Democracy in Denmark comes from Copenhagen. The party is enormously proud of having been part of building a city that is one of the most successful urban experiments in the world," says Kasper Fogh.

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A place in opposition

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It has caused a stir that Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil so bluntly rejected the possibility of pointing to any party from the Red-Green Alliance to the Liberal Alliance over the mayor's office (https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/s-i-hoejt-spil-om-magtfuld-post-i-koebenhavn-kommer-ikke-til-goere-andre-til).

The exchange with the podcast host went as follows:

Can you in any way point to the Red-Green Alliance for the mayor's office?

"No. I can't point to Venstre or Conservatives, so it's not so much about the Red-Green Alliance, but about the fact that we are going to the election to take the mayor's office in Copenhagen," answered Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil.

What about SF, Sisse Marie Welling (mayor candidate, red.), could you point to her?

"Regardless of which party you point to, we are going to the election to keep the mayor's office in Copenhagen."

But one can easily imagine a situation where you get such heavy tasks that you cannot sit on the mayor's office, so you must point to someone else?

"Then we will sit in opposition."

So you won't point to someone else?

"No. No. We won't."

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A somewhat strange governing system

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Although the statement from Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil may initially seem stiff, it is not so wild to sit in opposition on City Hall, as it sounds.

This is because Copenhagen's governing system and thus the electoral system, is something special.

Who becomes mayor is determined by a majority on City Hall. Then the rest of the mayor's offices are distributed according to the d'Hondt method to the party or electoral alliance that has received the most mandates.

It requires a little understanding of mathematics to calculate the finer details.

The finer details are not necessary to understand the essence:

When Pernille Rosenkrantz-Theil says that she does not intend to point to anyone other than herself as mayor, it is not the same as saying that she cannot become a department mayor.

It usually requires only that Social Democracy becomes one of the largest parties on City Hall.

"So unless common law and natural law are repealed, Social Democracy will take a leadership role, even if they do not get the mayor's office," says Kasper Fogh Hansen.

In a normal constitution, it will proceed as follows, that the largest party will get the first vote on one of the posts, then the largest party in the second largest group will get the second vote, and so on.

"So the likelihood of getting the most by being the largest party in the second largest group is high," says Kasper Fogh Hansen.

Therefore, it can be tactically smart for Social Democracy to keep itself out of the group that points to the mayor.

"The somewhat strange governing system means that there are less stable and predictable coalitions, than there are in national politics," explains Kasper Fogh Hansen.

The proof of this can be found in the unbelievable political decisions that have been made over the years on City Hall. For example, Liberals at one point considered pointing to an SF mayor (https://www.altinget.dk/hovedstaden/artikel/toer-de-magtfulde-partier-paa-raadhuset-bryde-kongeraekken-med-en-roedere-overborgmester) – the hope was that the path would be more open, if they first managed to topple Social Democracy's thousand-year reign.

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