Former analysis chief in Social Democrats: Mayor changes create challenges

On Wednesdays, 32-year-old Anders Winnerskjold will be appointed as the new mayor of Aarhus, taking over from Jacob Bundsgaard who is stepping down after 13 years. Winnerskjold is the latest example of Social Democratic mayors who have stepped down.

> Quote

> Mayor candidates must build themselves up and at the same time help lift the party. It's a tough task

> Jesper Claus Larsen, Director at analysis firm OTOO

Since the 2021 elections, there have been swings in the doors of Social Democratic mayors in places like Aalborg, Frederikshavn, Copenhagen, and most recently Aarhus. Social Democrats have lost their preferred candidates and left voters without their preferred choice.

------------------------------------------

Farewell to tens of thousands of personal votes

------------------------------------------

Eight Social Democratic mayors, who together received 71,719 personal votes last time, will not be on the ballot for the next election. Among them were four of the seven largest vote-getters.

- Right now, Social Democracy is in a situation where it cannot expect these votes to simply go to the new mayor candidate or the party.

According to Jesper Claus Larsen, who for several years was Social Democracy's analysis chief, this change can be a challenge leading up to the next year's municipal elections.

- The new faces in the mayor's offices create an immediate challenge. We know that municipal elections are very personality-driven. Many voters vote personally, and strong mayors attract many votes, says Jesper Claus Larsen.

At the 2021 municipal elections, 75.5% of voters voted personally, while only 46.2% did so at the latest parliamentary elections, according to figures from Statistics Denmark.

--------------------------------------------------------

Voter swing and decline in nationwide opinion polls

--------------------------------------------------------

According to Jesper Claus Larsen, the new mayoral candidates face a voter challenge.

In the four largest cities, Copenhagen, Aarhus, Odense, and Aalborg, Social Democracy suffered a voter swing and lost approximately ten percentage points at the last municipal election. At the same time, the party is currently experiencing a decline in nationwide opinion polls. In the latest Epinion poll, Social Democracy received 19.9% of the votes. At the 2021 municipal elections, the party, despite the decline, received 28.5% of the votes.

- Mayor candidates must build themselves up and at the same time help lift the party. It's a tough task. says Jesper Claus Larsen.

---------------------------

Social Democracy's high-profile mayors

---------------------------

Social Democracy has historically held power in Denmark's largest cities, including Copenhagen, which has been a Social Democratic-led stronghold for over 100 years. This title is now under threat, according to political observers.

At the latest election in Aalborg Municipality, Thomas Kastrup Larsen stepped down after being mayor since 2014. Lasse Frimand Jensen took over the mayor's chain and must now secure re-election.

In Aarhus, Anders Winnerskjold will now work to regain power. At the last election, he received 4,861 personal votes, which is far from the 19,279 that Bundsgaard received as the election's top vote-getter in 2021. Time is running out for Winnerskjold to convince voters, warns Jesper Claus Larsen.

- A year goes by really fast in Danish politics. It would have been worse if Bundsgaard had stepped down in the spring.

Winnerskjold will receive the mayor's chain during a city council meeting on Wednesday afternoon.

Warning: This article was translated by a Large Language Model, in case of doubt, you can always visit the original source.